Rotoworld: Rating the RB free-agent market

In terms of yearly earnings (apy), here are the ten highest paid running backs in football:

1. Adrian Peterson -- 7 years, 96 million. 36 million guaranteed (13.7apy).
2. Darren McFadden -- 6 years, 60 million. 26 million guaranteed (10apy).
3. Chris Johnson -- 6 years, 55 million. 30 million guaranteed (9.17apy).
4. DeAngelo Williams -- 5 years, 43 million. 21 million guaranteed (8.6apy).
5. Steven Jackson -- 6 years, 44.8 million. 20.5 million guaranteed (7.47apy).
6. Frank Gore -- 4 years, 25.9 million. 13.5 million guaranteed (6.48apy).
7. Maurice Jones-Drew -- 5 years, 31 million. 17.5 million guaranteed (6.2apy).
8. Michael Turner -- 6 years, 34.5 million. 15 million guaranteed. (5.75apy).
9. C.J. Spiller -- 5 years, 25 million. 20.8 million guaranteed (5apy).
10. Jamaal Charles -- 6 years, 28 million. 10 million guaranteed (4.67apy).

Four of the top six backs on this list signed their contracts in 2011. Johnson and Williams' deals will be 2012 market setters because at least four free agent running backs are coming off better seasons than them. Williams' contract, in particular, was a clear overpayment and will make the franchise tag a more appealing means of retaining players at a position that has been devalued by susceptibility to injury, replaceability, and diminished reliance on featured rushers.

Let's have a look:

Running Backs Expected to be Franchise Tagged

1. Ray Rice, Ravens

Overview: The most valuable offensive player on Baltimore's roster, Rice has said publicly that he's willing to play the 2012 season under the franchise tag should the sides fail to strike a long-term agreement. Rice will not be hitting the free agent market.

2. Matt Forte, Bears

Overview: Forte is in a similar position to Rice. The Bears do not have a capable replacement, and it's believed Forte (with good reason) is pursuing a contract worth in excess of DeAngelo Williams' five-year, $43 million pact. Forte will likely be tagged before the Combine.

Running Back Free Agents

1. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

Scouting Report: A disappointment in Buffalo as the former 12th pick in the draft, Lynch was shipped to Seattle in October of 2010 for a 2011 fourth-round choice and conditional 2012 pick. (The 2011 pick turned out to be Bills LT Chris Hairston, and the conditional selection will be a fifth-rounder this April.) Lynch managed 3,479 yards and 24 touchdowns on 898 carries (3.87 YPC) in his first 61 games. Realizing 2011 was his contract year, Lynch exploded for 1,063 yards and 11 touchdowns on 239 carries (4.45 YPC) in the Seahawks' last 11 games. Lynch is a tackle-breaking power back at 5-foot-11, 215, though he's never developed into much of an asset in the pass game. Lynch isn't yet 26 years old, but already has 1,137 career carries.

Availability: Lynch's sudden, dramatic leap in contract-year production sends up an obvious buyer-beware red flag. His conditioning has consistently been an issue, particularly during offseasons, and the franchise tag would make for an ideal compromise between player and team. The Seahawks could keep Lynch hungry in another "walk year", and he'd receive a guaranteed salary of roughly $8 million. Don't expect Lynch to hit the market, but he very well may in 2013.

Prediction: Seahawks on the franchise tag.

2. Michael Bush, Raiders

Scouting Report: Bush bucks the trend of one-trick pony power backs with smooth receiving skills and bone-crushing pass-blocking ability. He's a three-down player and has fumbled just once among his last 456 carries. While Bush pushes piles and consistently falls forward, the 245-pounder lacks homerun-hitting speed and is more reliant on effective run blocking than shiftier backs with wheels to exploit downfield running lanes. Another potential concern is Bush's slow finish to the 2011 season. Whereas he averaged 4.44 YPC on his first 134 carries, Bush slipped to 3.13 YPC on his final 122 attempts. Bush's feet moved noticeably more slowly down the stretch, and he appeared on late-season injury reports with a shoulder ailment.

Availability: The Raiders reportedly hope to sign free agent SS Tyvon Branch long term, and have at least considered tagging Bush. Bush turns 28 this June, and Oakland needs insurance for would-be feature back Darren McFadden, who missed nine games in 2011 and is recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury. But would GM Reggie McKenzie commit upwards of $14 million to the running back position alone? The RB tag will cost nearly $8 million. McFadden's 2012 salary is $5.65 million. We suspect the Raiders will ultimately decide against franchising Bush, and instead sign a relatively affordable free agent to compete with Taiwan Jones behind McFadden.

Prediction: Bengals on a four-year, $20 million contract.

3. Peyton Hillis, Browns

Scouting Report: A slightly souped-up version of Bush, Hillis goes 6-foot-2, 250 and displays impressive versatility for a power runner. Hillis has 83 catches over the past two seasons, and is the rare back with size to counter defensive ends and 3-4 linebackers in pass protection. It's fair to argue that Hillis' monster 2010 season (270/1,177/4.4/11) may be indicative of a one-year wonder, however. Dating back to the stretch run of that year, Hillis has managed just 635 yards and three touchdowns on 179 carries (3.55 YPC) in his last 12 games. During that span, he's battled ribs, knee, elbow, hip, and recurring hamstring injuries. Hillis was rumored to let a contract issue affect his 2011 performance. He has nine fumbles in two years.

Availability: The Browns won't tag Hillis, but the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported in late January that the team has renewed interest in re-signing him. While speculation has linked the Redskins to Hillis because of his background with Mike Shanahan, keep in mind that Shanahan drafted Hillis to play fullback, and he was almost strictly a lead blocker in Denver, carrying the football only in short-yardage situations. Staying in Cleveland still makes the most sense for Hillis because the Browns do view him as a tailback, and Montario Hardesty has proven both ineffective and injury prone. A one-year, "prove-it" contract would work well for both parties. Hillis is still only 26, so he could reenter the market in 2012 after a healthy, productive season.

Prediction: Browns on a one-year, $5 million contract.

In terms of yearly earnings (apy), here are the ten highest paid running backs in football:

1. Adrian Peterson -- 7 years, 96 million. 36 million guaranteed (13.7apy).
2. Darren McFadden -- 6 years, 60 million. 26 million guaranteed (10apy).
3. Chris Johnson -- 6 years, 55 million. 30 million guaranteed (9.17apy).
4. DeAngelo Williams -- 5 years, 43 million. 21 million guaranteed (8.6apy).
5. Steven Jackson -- 6 years, 44.8 million. 20.5 million guaranteed (7.47apy).
6. Frank Gore -- 4 years, 25.9 million. 13.5 million guaranteed (6.48apy).
7. Maurice Jones-Drew -- 5 years, 31 million. 17.5 million guaranteed (6.2apy).
8. Michael Turner -- 6 years, 34.5 million. 15 million guaranteed. (5.75apy).
9. C.J. Spiller -- 5 years, 25 million. 20.8 million guaranteed (5apy).
10. Jamaal Charles -- 6 years, 28 million. 10 million guaranteed (4.67apy).

Four of the top six backs on this list signed their contracts in 2011. Johnson and Williams' deals will be 2012 market setters because at least four free agent running backs are coming off better seasons than them. Williams' contract, in particular, was a clear overpayment and will make the franchise tag a more appealing means of retaining players at a position that has been devalued by susceptibility to injury, replaceability, and diminished reliance on featured rushers.

Let's have a look:

Running Backs Expected to be Franchise Tagged

1. Ray Rice, Ravens

Overview: The most valuable offensive player on Baltimore's roster, Rice has said publicly that he's willing to play the 2012 season under the franchise tag should the sides fail to strike a long-term agreement. Rice will not be hitting the free agent market.

2. Matt Forte, Bears

Overview: Forte is in a similar position to Rice. The Bears do not have a capable replacement, and it's believed Forte (with good reason) is pursuing a contract worth in excess of DeAngelo Williams' five-year, $43 million pact. Forte will likely be tagged before the Combine.

Running Back Free Agents

1. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

Scouting Report: A disappointment in Buffalo as the former 12th pick in the draft, Lynch was shipped to Seattle in October of 2010 for a 2011 fourth-round choice and conditional 2012 pick. (The 2011 pick turned out to be Bills LT Chris Hairston, and the conditional selection will be a fifth-rounder this April.) Lynch managed 3,479 yards and 24 touchdowns on 898 carries (3.87 YPC) in his first 61 games. Realizing 2011 was his contract year, Lynch exploded for 1,063 yards and 11 touchdowns on 239 carries (4.45 YPC) in the Seahawks' last 11 games. Lynch is a tackle-breaking power back at 5-foot-11, 215, though he's never developed into much of an asset in the pass game. Lynch isn't yet 26 years old, but already has 1,137 career carries.

Availability: Lynch's sudden, dramatic leap in contract-year production sends up an obvious buyer-beware red flag. His conditioning has consistently been an issue, particularly during offseasons, and the franchise tag would make for an ideal compromise between player and team. The Seahawks could keep Lynch hungry in another "walk year", and he'd receive a guaranteed salary of roughly $8 million. Don't expect Lynch to hit the market, but he very well may in 2013.

Prediction: Seahawks on the franchise tag.

2. Michael Bush, Raiders

Scouting Report: Bush bucks the trend of one-trick pony power backs with smooth receiving skills and bone-crushing pass-blocking ability. He's a three-down player and has fumbled just once among his last 456 carries. While Bush pushes piles and consistently falls forward, the 245-pounder lacks homerun-hitting speed and is more reliant on effective run blocking than shiftier backs with wheels to exploit downfield running lanes. Another potential concern is Bush's slow finish to the 2011 season. Whereas he averaged 4.44 YPC on his first 134 carries, Bush slipped to 3.13 YPC on his final 122 attempts. Bush's feet moved noticeably more slowly down the stretch, and he appeared on late-season injury reports with a shoulder ailment.

Availability: The Raiders reportedly hope to sign free agent SS Tyvon Branch long term, and have at least considered tagging Bush. Bush turns 28 this June, and Oakland needs insurance for would-be feature back Darren McFadden, who missed nine games in 2011 and is recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury. But would GM Reggie McKenzie commit upwards of $14 million to the running back position alone? The RB tag will cost nearly $8 million. McFadden's 2012 salary is $5.65 million. We suspect the Raiders will ultimately decide against franchising Bush, and instead sign a relatively affordable free agent to compete with Taiwan Jones behind McFadden.

Prediction: Bengals on a four-year, $20 million contract.

3. Peyton Hillis, Browns

Scouting Report: A slightly souped-up version of Bush, Hillis goes 6-foot-2, 250 and displays impressive versatility for a power runner. Hillis has 83 catches over the past two seasons, and is the rare back with size to counter defensive ends and 3-4 linebackers in pass protection. It's fair to argue that Hillis' monster 2010 season (270/1,177/4.4/11) may be indicative of a one-year wonder, however. Dating back to the stretch run of that year, Hillis has managed just 635 yards and three touchdowns on 179 carries (3.55 YPC) in his last 12 games. During that span, he's battled ribs, knee, elbow, hip, and recurring hamstring injuries. Hillis was rumored to let a contract issue affect his 2011 performance. He has nine fumbles in two years.

Availability: The Browns won't tag Hillis, but the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported in late January that the team has renewed interest in re-signing him. While speculation has linked the Redskins to Hillis because of his background with Mike Shanahan, keep in mind that Shanahan drafted Hillis to play fullback, and he was almost strictly a lead blocker in Denver, carrying the football only in short-yardage situations. Staying in Cleveland still makes the most sense for Hillis because the Browns do view him as a tailback, and Montario Hardesty has proven both ineffective and injury prone. A one-year, "prove-it" contract would work well for both parties. Hillis is still only 26, so he could reenter the market in 2012 after a healthy, productive season.

Prediction: Browns on a one-year, $5 million contract.

4. Cedric Benson, Bengals

Scouting Report: Benson does fit the description of a one-dimensional power back and must be paired with a complementary runner who plays in passing situations. He struggles mightily as a receiver and has never learned to block. Benson does well to stay north-south and finishes his runs, but he's exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in just one of the past four seasons. Now 29, Benson is in the twilight of his career. He also has a checkered off-field history and openly criticized the Bengals' coaching staff after the season. Benson is not expected back in Cincinnati.

Availability: The Bengals have two first-round picks following last October's Carson Palmer trade, and are tentatively expected to use one of them on a new starting tailback. Benson has never taken well to playing second fiddle in a backfield, but he's going to have to suck it up in order to continue his playing career. Benson's skill set is so limited and his character so unsavory that he'll have very little market appeal. He may struggle to find a new home before training camp.

Prediction: Chargers on a one-year, $2 million contract.

5. Mike Tolbert, Chargers

Scouting Report: Tolbert is the anti-Benson. He runs with power and purpose and can play in all phases of the game. In San Diego, the Chargers were comfortable bringing former No. 12 overall pick Ryan Mathews along slowly because Tolbert was so sound in the pass game and chews up every blocked yard. He excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations. A 5-foot-9, 243-pound bowling ball, Tolbert is only 26, can function as a third-down and powerful change-of-pace back, and even made ten special teams tackles in 2011. He's going to have many suitors.

Availability: The San Diego Union-Tribune has reported that Tolbert will test the market, seeking to max out his worth after four solid seasons as a Charger. While Tolbert's lack of explosiveness will prevent him from signing for feature back money, the market should be kind because he's a major passing-game asset in a pass-first league. The Ravens make some sense as a team that runs an offense similar to San Diego's, though they are expected to be in on free agent FB/RB Le'Ron McClain. The Cowboys and Rams also run Norv Turner-style offenses.

Prediction: Cowboys on a four-year, $12 million contract.

6. Kevin Smith, Lions

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-1, 217, Smith is a well-built runner with some lateral hops and elusiveness. He ran 4.43 at the 2008 Combine. Smith's bread and butter is the passing game, where he is a sure-handed check-down receiver and can make defenders miss in space. Since entering the NFL following a 450-carry season at Central Florida, however, Smith's biggest obstacle has been health. The 25-year-old suffered a recurring shoulder injury as a rookie, then tore his ACL in December of 2009. He underwent season-ending thumb surgery the next season, resurfaced with the Lions late in 2011, and suffered a high ankle sprain in his second game back.

Availability: The current Lions regime did not draft Smith, but they are familiar with his injury history and potential. He just can't stay healthy. The Lions are also nursing back Jahvid Best from two concussions, however, and Mikel Leshoure from a torn Achilles' tendon. Taking one more shot on Smith makes sense because he knows OC Scott Linehan's offense and is at the very least insurance for Detroit's other injury-plagued backs. Smith should also come cheap.

Prediction: Lions on a one-year, $2 million contract.

7. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

Scouting Report: Originally undrafted out of Ole Miss, Green-Ellis has parlayed pedestrian talent into a productive career through reliability, durability, and a bruising running style. Green-Ellis has not fumbled in 536 career touches and has never missed a game due to injury. One of the NFL's better goal-line backs, Green-Ellis has scored 22 of his 29 career rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. Just one has come from beyond the opposing 16. Green-Ellis lacks big-play ability and offers little in the passing game. He is a system back, converting short-yardage scoring opportunities that wouldn't be available in offenses less potent than New England's. In 2011, he did not hit a single run of longer than 18 yards on 181 carries.

Availability: The Pats used 2011 second-day picks on more explosive youngsters Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, and won't overpay to retain Green-Ellis. Because Green-Ellis is still relatively young (27 before the season) with a productive track record, he may be overvalued on the open market by running back-needy teams. Green-Ellis has history with Chiefs GM Scott Pioli and knows the ins and outs of new coordinator Brian Daboll's offense. Chiefs starter Jamaal Charles is coming off a torn left ACL, while Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones are both free agents.

Prediction: Chiefs on a four-year, $11.5 million contract.

8. Justin Forsett, Seahawks

Scouting Report: Still the holder of an impressive 4.63 yards-per-carry average in his four-year career, Forsett's production sagged in 2011 as his role diminished. According to Pro Football Focus, Forsett's snaps played fell from 492 in 2010 to 294. Seahawks coaches wanted Leon Washington more involved on offense, and a streaking Marshawn Lynch became impossible to take off the field down the stretch. Forsett does hold his own in blitz pickup despite modest size (5'9/198), and the 26-year-old excels as a receiver out of the backfield. As a ball carrier, Forsett lacks pop and struggles inside the tackles, but displays elusive qualities and has primarily played in zone-blocking schemes dating back to college. He is a shifty, change-of-pace/third-down back.

Availability: Forsett's decreased usage suggests the Seahawks don't envision him as part of the long-term plan. The current regime did "inherit" Forsett, after all, and aggressively pursued Washington before signing him to an extension last March. Forsett has ties to Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, as well as new Bears quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates.

Prediction: Raiders on a two-year, $5 million contract.

Other running back free agents: Tim Hightower, Jason Snelling, Le'Ron McClain, Jacob Hester, Steve Slaton, Cadillac Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, Jackie Battle, Michael Robinson, Sammy Morris, Mewelde Moore, Maurice Morris, Tashard Choice, Jerome Felton, Derrick Ward, Thomas Jones, Spencer Larsen, Jerious Norwood, Chester Taylor.

Restricted Free Agent Running Backs

1. Arian Foster, Texans

Scouting Report: The NFL's premier one-cut zone runner, Foster's acceleration after he sticks his foot in the ground separates him from productive backs who play in similar schemes. A 25-year-old self-made player, Foster has climbed football's steepest ladder from undrafted free agent, to the practice squad, to the league's leading rusher. He is a true every-down back, ranking second in the NFL in receptions among running backs in 2010 and fifth in 2011 despite missing three games. Foster is averaging 4.70 yards per carry for his career.

Availability: While Foster has shown enough that he likely could produce in any scheme, he has the most value in Houston because he's fully grasped the system and is the offense's lynchpin. The Texans tied for first in the league in 2011 rushing attempts and ranked second in rushing offense. At very least, GM Rick Smith will slap a first-round tender on Foster and require any team interested in signing him to an offer sheet to fork over a top-32 draft pick. Smith could even consider franchise tagging Foster. The bottom line is he isn't going anywhere.

Prediction: Texans on a five-year, $45 million contract.

2. Kahlil Bell, Bears

Scouting Report: Bell went undrafted after running 4.74 at the 2009 Combine, but he's been a more effective NFL back than the measurable suggests. The 25-year-old is averaging 4.68 yards per career carry and racked up 19 catches in four late-season spot appearances in 2011. Bell goes 5-foot-11, 219. He can get what's blocked and is not a liability in pass protection.

Availability: Bell was originally undrafted out of UCLA, so he wouldn't be safe with an "original pick" tender because a team could sign Bell away without coughing up a draft choice. Look for the Bears to extend Bell the second-round tender and re-sign him to a one-year deal.

Prediction: Bears on a one-year, $1.927 million contract.

3. Marcel Reece, Raiders

Scouting Report: Reece played wideout at the University of Washington, where he averaged over 20 yards per career reception. Despite a 4.42 forty at the Huskies' 2008 Pro Day, Reece was viewed as a "tweener" by NFL evaluators and went undrafted. In parts of four seasons with Oakland, Reece has flashed explosive ability as a fullback, averaging 4.98 yards per carry. He's scored five receiving TDs over the past two seasons. Reece is not a true lead blocker, so he needs a creative playcaller to find ways to get him the rock and capitalize on his playmaking skills.

Availability: New Raiders coordinator Greg Knapp runs a West Coast offense and has utilized backs similar to Reece in the past. Knapp oversaw T.J. Duckett and Justin Griffith's best seasons in Atlanta, and William Floyd was a versatile weapon at fullback with Knapp on the 49ers' staff in the late 1990s. Reece may not quite be headed for a breakout year, but staying with the Raiders could be a good situation for him. Expect Reece to stick on a second-round tender.

Prediction: Raiders on a one-year, $1.927 million contract.

Other restricted free agent running backs: La'Rod Stephens-Howling, Tony Fiammetta, Lex Hilliard, Lorenzo Booker, Kregg Lumpkin, Chris Pressley, Brock Bolen, Brit Miller.

Trade Candidates

1. Darren McFadden, Raiders

Overview: We don't expect McFadden to be traded, but the possibility has been floated by beat writers in Oakland. Though injury prone and only moderately expensive ($5.65 million salary), McFadden is the Raiders' single biggest offensive difference maker. It's worth noting that Oakland is implementing a zone-blocking scheme, and McFadden struggled in a similar system under ex-coach Tom Cable. Still, trading McFadden isn't worth it for the Raiders. His trade value is adversely affected by a season-ending Lisfranc injury, and the team won't be willing to hitch its wagon to 28-year-old free agent Michael Bush. New OC Greg Knapp is one of the most run-minded playcallers of the modern era. He's going to want to keep his best back.

Prediction: Stays with Raiders.

2. Felix Jones, Cowboys

Overview: Unlike college teammate McFadden, Jones is entering a contract year and makes sense as a trade candidate after DeMarco Murray's 2011 emergence. While Jones has averaged an impressive 5.08 yards per career carry, he's blown repeated opportunities to be Dallas' feature back, due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness. Only 24, Jones is a dynamic home-run threat best cutout for a change-of-pace role. More negatives include ball security (ten fumbles 2009-11), poor pass protection, and suspect instincts when running inside the tackles. Ultimately, it's more likely Jones stays with the Cowboys as the lightning to Murray's thunder. Interested teams won't offer more than a fourth- or fifth-round pick, and Dallas views itself as a contender.

Prediction: Stays with Cowboys.

3. Ben Tate, Texans

Overview: The Texans almost certainly won't trade Tate because he's a starting-capable back in the league's most run-heavy offense, and costs a meager $490K. They're going to get phone calls, though. Houston intends to sign Arian Foster to a long-term contract, and the 23-year-old Tate emerged as one of football's top young power backs in 2011 by averaging 5.38 yards per carry and finishing as a top-20 NFL rusher despite making only two starts. Tate is still developing in the passing game, but has flashed vicious ability as a pass blocker. If the Texans do listen to offers, don't expect them to budge off a first-round asking price. Tate is a big-time player.

Prediction: Stays with Texans.

4. Chris Ivory, Saints

Overview: A north-south collision runner completely devoid of passing-game value, Ivory has flourished whenever given opportunities to be the Saints' early-down back. Appearing in 18 games through two years, Ivory has averaged 5.05 yards per carry with six touchdowns. The relentless, take-no-prisoners style has led to an array of injuries, however. Ivory blew out a knee five games into his senior college season. Undrafted in 2010, he missed time as a rookie with an MCL injury, concussion, separated shoulder, and a hamstring strain. Ivory suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in Week 17. He also underwent hernia surgery during the 2011 offseason and missed one game with another hamstring injury last season. Ivory is only two years into the league, and he's already got a laundry list of medical flags. The Saints will be all ears in regard to trade offers because he's fourth string behind Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram.

Prediction: Elsewhere before 2012 trade deadline.

5. Anthony Dixon

Overview: Dixon has a power back's build at 6-foot-1, 248, but he has frustrated two separate coaching staffs with a tendency to dance around the line of scrimmage. He quickly fell behind rookie Kendall Hunter in 2011 training camp, playing only 52 regular season snaps. Dixon did contribute six tackles on special teams. While Dixon remains a work in progress entering his third NFL season, there is still some potential for him to emerge as a poor man's Michael Bush. The 24-year-old entered the league with polished receiving skills coming out of Mississippi State, and Dixon has pass blocked effectively when called upon. With Hunter and Frank Gore both signed through 2014, Dixon may be deemed expendable this offseason.

Prediction: Traded to Buccaneers for sixth-round pick.

More Running Back Trade Candidates: Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Javon Ringer, D.J. Ware.

Release Candidates

1. Michael Turner, Falcons

Overview: The wheels are coming off. Turner's 2010 finish sent up red flags when he managed 436 yards on 121 carries (3.60 YPC) in the last six games against perhaps the NFL's softest run-defense schedule. The decline began sooner in 2011. Turner was bottled up for 280 yards on 84 carries (3.33 YPC) in Weeks 12-16 before a fluky 172-yard Week 17 game against a Bucs defense that gave up in November. Burned out and prone to negative runs, Turner was held to 15 rushes for 41 yards in the Falcons' playoff loss. Turner has a limiting effect on the offense because he can't play in the hurry-up without passing-game skills. He turned 30 this week and is owed a $5 million salary. The team has already spoken openly of limiting Turner's role in 2012.

Prediction: Released after the draft.

2. Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Overview: Jacobs agreed to a restructured contract to stay in New York after a surprise 2010 renaissance, averaging a career-best 5.60 yards per carry with nine TDs. Jacobs' per-play production slipped dramatically at age 29, posting a 3.76 YPC mark while forced into a larger role due to Ahmad Bradshaw's four missed games. Jacobs isn't a featurable back and is now going on 30 with $4.9 million coming due in bonuses and salary. Outed by ESPN's Jerry Rice for tip-toeing behind the line and getting tackled by "190-pound defensive backs" in 2011, Jacobs often runs as if he's more concerned with his long-term well being than extra yards. Jacobs is a negative in the passing game as well as the running game when he's not playing hard. He may have to accept a pay cut all the way to the eight-year veteran's minimum to stay with the Giants.

Prediction: Released in early March.

3. Joseph Addai, Colts

Overview: Scuffling through another injury-plagued year, Addai missed four games with a right hamstring strain in 2011 after sitting out eight the previous season with a severe neck injury. By the end of last season, former first-round bust Donald Brown had overtaken Addai as the Colts' best option at tailback. Peyton Manning was behind Addai's re-signing in late July, and the face of the franchise is now moving on. Addai is a sluggish, injury-prone ball carrier whose value lies almost strictly in his pass-protection skills. He's probably not much longer for the NFL.

Prediction: Released, resurfaces with team that signs Manning.

4. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos

Overview: Moreno was pushed as an aggressive, competitive runner with every-down tools coming out of Georgia in 2009, but his poor Speed Score forewarned of an ordinary back lacking big-play ability. Replacing Donte' Stallworth as the NFL's Human Hamstring Pull, Moreno suffered multiple leg injuries in his first two seasons before tearing his right ACL last November. In the meantime, Moreno lost his starting job to 30-year-old Willis McGahee and played sparingly under Denver's new coaching staff. On February 1, Moreno was pinched for DUI in a Bentley with a license plate that read "SAUCED." He is due an $855,000 salary in 2012.

Prediction: Waived at final cuts.

5. Marion Barber, Bears

Overview: Barber couldn't overcome lower-leg injuries during his final few seasons in Dallas, and they reappeared in 2011 training camp with the Bears. He missed the first three games with a calf injury, as well as the final two with a similar ailment. It stands to reason that Barber wasn't 100 percent all season, and he hasn't been at full health since 2009. Barber's passing-game skills are eroding and he's not nearly the tackle breaker he once was. After 1,335 career touches, many of a high-velocity collision variety, Barber's body is breaking down at age 29.

Prediction: Released in March, catches on in a camp.

More Running Back Release Candidates: Greg Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ovie Mughelli, Mike Sellers.

Source: http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39912/59/the-2012-running-back-market

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